Election Politics

I try not to be a political junkie, because I've found it mostly just makes me mad and despair for the future of humanity. It's been hard during the primary season though. My only horse in the race, Rand Paul, dropped out pretty early. Admittedly, my support there was a little half-hearted, much like the younger Paul's libertarianism.

Numbers, statistics, etc. always seem to draw me back in during primary season though. This one is fairly exciting, even though we've known Trump v. Clinton will be the contest in the Fall for a while. After tonight Rubio and Kasich are numerical impossibilities while Cruz is a long shot. A very long shot.

The only reason for Rubio or Kasich to stay in at this point is to try to force a brokered convention. It looks like Rubio's not going that route, but Kasich is going at it full bore. This will likely spoil any chance, however slim, of Cruz overtaking Trump or even of a brokered convention. If Trump continues winning in the mid-40's, on the surface it appears he won't be able to rack up a majority either. Hidden in this, however, is that 649 of the 998 remaining delegates are in Winner Take All states. (One of these, Missouri, has already voted and is nominally still too close to call, but Trump is ahead.) Trump's only lost one Winner Take All state so far: Ohio. None of the opponents have a home state left though.

Of course, for the Republicans the worst case scenario would be a brokered convention that doesn't pick Trump. The man is running for president to achieve power. The Republican Party is only a means to that end. While the other candidates may bite there tongues and support whoever is anointed in Cleveland, Trump will still be running regardless. Does anyone really think a few little pledges not to run a third party will stand between Trump and his quest for power? He wouldn't miss a beat and it would be 1992 all over again.

Trump is already confidently pivoting to take on Clinton and will no doubt soon outline his plan to turn that dilapidated old White House into a beautiful casino hotel. Clinton's position looks even more secure.

Sanders would have to turn the polls upside and then some to come even close. Only the most die hard 6th year sociology major could believe he's got a chance. It's amazing how easy it is for NPR to find them though...

It will be interesting to if some of the small government voters defect to the Libertarian Party with two big government candidates represented by the major parties. No doubt the fear narrative will work to keep many away: this major party candidate is scary so your only safe choice is to vote for the other major party candidate. That argument is so pervasive that any time I say something against one, people ask how I can support the other. Three candidates on the debate stage could really change this, and Gary Johnson thinks he can make it happen. I am cautiously optimistic.