Taiwan

11 March 2023

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Tensions across the Strait of Taiwan have been steadily increasing as the ridiculous international status of this independent country is written for conflict. But how did we get here? The island was a part of the Chinese empire for two centuries before Japan took it for the first half of the 20th century. But Japan lost WWII and with it many of it's territorial gains of the past century, including Taiwan. The war with Japan also led to the rise of the communist warlord Mao Zedong, who conquered mainland China while the republican government fled to Taiwan. In reality Taiwan hasn't been governed by the mainland for almost 130 years.

In 1997 the British turned over the citizens of Hong Kong after 99 years to China. The Chinese government has slowly but deliberately crushed freedoms and independent government there. Emboldened by this success and seeing Russia slowly retaking it's empire. There's been a land war going on in Europe for over a year now and the rest of the world has not stepped in to assist the independent country of Ukraine, but instead sat on the sidelines sending aid. It's no wonder Xi Jinping feels emboldened.

Xi Jinping has ruled China for a decade now, and, like Putin, has no plans to step aside anytime soon. Just this week he was "elected" for a third term by the parliament. In addition to crushing Hong Kong he has overseen the Uighur genocide, ethnic replacement of Tibet with Han Chinese, the violent lockdowns of covid, the growing surveillance state, meddling in foreign elections (e.g. Canada), the persecution of businessmen, border fighting with India, and untold other atrocities.

China is at it's demographic peak and has begun what will be a steep decline. The economy has also stopped growing at a breakneck pace and may never overtake America's. Good reasons for Xi to settle the Taiwan question sooner rather than later. Ergo Xi is pushing as hard as he can to test the resolve of the international community, especially America, that guarantees Taiwan's existence.

Russia has 3 times the population of Ukraine, but China has more than 60 times the population of Taiwan. War between the two would really be no contest. However, while Ukraine is an important producer of crops like wheat and sunflower oil, Taiwan produces a quarter of the world's integrated circuits. Thus the commitment of the international community to Taiwan's sovereignty may be higher than Ukraine's.

China has been extremely successful at isolating Taiwan. In 1971 UN resolution 2758 expelled Taiwan and stated the People's Republic of China is "the only legitimate representative of China". Before that a different farce had existed, however, with Taiwan claiming to be the legitimate government of mainland China. This "one China" policy of the 1970's kicked the problem down the road to future. In recent years Lithuania allowed Taiwan to open a representative office there and China imposed sanctions and threatened to curtail trade. And we've all seen the sadly disgusting video of John Cena kowtowing for saying Taiwan is a country.

My guess is that if the international community, especially America, allows the de jure ambiguity to continue, China will eventually succeed in the conquest of Taiwan and 24 million people will find themselves under the brutal surveillance state. On the other hand, I think that if the US backs a statement of Taiwanese independence now, then the Chinese bully will back down. It is extremely unfortunate for the Taiwanese that they have so little control over their fate.